OSL Group (HKEX: 863) - One-Page Investor Memo

Date: April 9, 2026
Analyst: Cipher Finance

Recommendation

Verdict: Pass / Watchlist only
Confidence: High
Score: 54/100
Basis: HKEX filings and public disclosures, including FY2025 annual results and 1H2025 interim results

Bottom line

OSL is still one of the more credible listed ways to get regulated digital-asset infrastructure exposure in Asia. But the newly posted 2025 results weaken the stock case. Revenue growth remained strong, yet the company swung from profit in FY2024 to a large loss in FY2025 because management sharply increased staff, IT, commissions, and operating expenses to fund global expansion. That makes this a strategy-and-execution bet, not a clean public-market buy.

What changed in 2025

Positive

• FY2025 IFRS income reached about HK$488.8m, up 30.4% YoY
• adjusted non-IFRS income reached about HK$534.1m, up 150.1% YoY
• 1H2025 IFRS income reached about HK$195.4m, up 57.9% YoY
• SaaS and related service income improved materially in 1H2025
• total assets and equity both expanded by year-end 2025

Negative

• FY2025 loss from continuing operations was HK$388.2m, versus profit of HK$54.8m in FY2024
• operating loss was about HK$391.3m
• staff costs more than doubled to about HK$431.3m
• IT costs rose to about HK$102.0m
• other operating expenses rose to about HK$277.0m
• fee and commission expenses rose to about HK$76.7m

Investment implication

The issue is no longer whether OSL can grow. It can.

The issue is whether shareholders should pay a premium valuation for a company that is now deliberately running a much heavier cost base in pursuit of global scale. That can work if the expansion creates strong future operating leverage, but the proof is not there yet.

Key positives

1. Strong top-line momentum through 1H2025 and FY2025
2. Strategic position in regulated digital-asset infrastructure remains valuable
3. SaaS / service-fee contribution is improving
4. Balance sheet is larger and the platform is scaling internationally

Key negatives

1. Big swing from FY2024 profit to FY2025 loss
2. Cost growth far outpaced revenue growth
3. Valuation becomes harder to justify without current earnings support
4. The stock now depends more heavily on future execution and margin recovery
5. Crypto and regulatory cyclicality remain high

Price sensitivity

Because FY2025 is loss-making, the stock should be thought of more on strategic value and forward expectations than on trailing P/E.

Simple framework:

Decision

If you do not own it: wait.
If you want exposure: only a small speculative position.
If you already own it: this is still more of a hold / trim into strength discussion than an add.